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Precisely two months after his failed coup, Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin is believed to have died on Wednesday after his personal jet crashed in flames on an inner flight inside Russia.
Hypothesis is rife that Russian President Vladimir Putin — who’s notoriously unforgiving of traitors and accused Prigozhin of “treason” in June — ordered the downing of the plane. It comes solely a day after Russian media introduced the firing of Sergei Surovikin, the previous commander of Moscow’s battle effort in Ukraine, who has not been seen in public for the reason that aborted Wagner coup.
A former loyalist who was dubbed “Putin’s chef” for his function as a catering government supplying the Kremlin, Prigozhin turned embittered towards the Russian authorities’s dealing with of the battle. In late June, his rebellion commanded 24-hour international protection after he seized the southern Russian metropolis of Rostov-on-Don and ordered a column of troops towards Moscow.
Putin himself appeared cheery on Wednesday night after Russian media urged Prigozhin was lifeless, opening remarks at an occasion commemorating the Battle of Kursk in World Warfare II with a broad smile. “Devotion to the homeland and loyalty to the navy oath is what unites all contributors of the particular navy operation,” he mentioned in his speech, referring to Russia’s battle in Ukraine.
For the reason that coup, Putin and Prigozhin appeared to have reached an uneasy truce till the crash. On Wednesday, Russia’s investigative committee mentioned it had opened a prison probe into the lack of a enterprise jet en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg that crashed within the Tver area, with the lack of 10 folks on board.
Russia’s aviation regulator, Rosaviatsii, additionally issued an announcement confirming an investigation. “In line with the listing of passengers, the identify and surname of Yevgeny Prigozhin is amongst them,” the company mentioned.
Wagner Orchestra, a Telegram channel, posted a photograph of what seemed to be the burning wreckage of a aircraft, saying the Embraer Legacy 600 had been shot down by Russian air defenses.
The well-connected Russian Telegram channel VChK-OGPU reported that Dmitry Utkin, a central Wagner determine and its alleged founder, was additionally among the many aircraft’s passengers. “Wagner has been decapitated,” the channel commented.
Former tycoon turned political dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky wrote he had no sympathy for Prigozhin, however denounced what he described as “one more extrajudicial killing.”
Hit job
Professional-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov tried to flip the blame onto Ukraine.
“Prigozhin is lifeless. Nobody believes that that is an accident,” he mentioned on his Telegram channel. In a separate submit, hinting at how Kremlin spin docs would possibly body the aircraft crash within the hours and days to come back, Markov mentioned the “homicide of Prigozhin and Utkin … might be a terrorist assault by Ukraine forward of Ukraine’s Independence Day.”
“All enemies of Russia are already rejoicing. The homicide of Prigozhin is Ukraine’s major achievement this yr,” Markov wrote.
Journalist Christo Grozev from the on-line investigative mission Bellingcat dismissed hypothesis Ukraine may very well be behind the crash.
“If Ukraine had had the capability to do one thing like this, it might have finished it at a time when Prigozhin was certainly one of its major enemies, when he stood on the head of one of the crucial environment friendly branches of Russia’s navy,” Grozev advised the Fashionable Politics YouTube channel run by allies of Alexei Navalny.
As an alternative, he mentioned, he thought it extra probably Prigozhin would possibly have staged his personal loss of life.
“It matches his type,” Grozev mentioned, stating Prigozhin had a number of doubles.
However he added probably the most credible situation is that it issues a “hit job personally ordered by Putin for humiliating him.”
Russia’s ‘open-windows’ coverage
U.S. officers have been anticipating Prigozhin’s demise given Putin’s historical past of shelling out with opponents. It has even been the supply of some gallows humor. In July, on the Aspen Safety Discussion board, Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned: “If I have been Mr. Prigozhin, I might stay very involved. NATO has an open-door coverage; Russia has an open-windows coverage.”
U.S. Nationwide Safety Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson mentioned: “We now have seen the stories. If confirmed, nobody must be shocked. The disastrous battle in Ukraine led to a personal military marching on Moscow, and now — it might appear — to this.”
Senate Intel Chair Mark Warner mentioned: “Nobody ought to mourn Prigozhin’s loss of life, however this report, if confirmed, is one other reminder of the brutality of the Putin regime, and why we should proceed our assist for Ukraine in its battle for freedom.”
“If the information are confirmed, I might say it was at all times troublesome to know Prigozhin might have believed he might survive after the June coup,” mentioned a senior diplomat from Central Europe, who was granted anonymity to talk candidly. “Now, we have no idea particulars, however this seems to be like most certainly an apparent message from the regime, that anyone who challenges it, needs to be eradicated.”
“What would be the penalties to the Wagner Group is to be seen, however most certainly, below this model or one other, it’s going to stay an instrument of the Kremlin.”
A second senior diplomat from Central Europe mentioned: “I assume Prighozin was considerably ‘within the air’ for the reason that botched coup try, his possibilities for survival have been minuscule. After the literal aircraft crash Putin is stronger in Moscow, Prighozin ‘deader’ north of Moscow.”
A diplomat from Western Europe, additionally granted anonymity to talk candidly, mentioned: “I assume most of us shared the view that up thus far he was a lifeless man strolling. Unlikely we’ll get the true reason for this crash. However we could add this to the listing of unexplained deaths amongst those that by some means undermine Putin’s authority.”
Anniversary of rebellion
The aircraft crash got here two months to the day after Prigozhin, 62, launched his rebellion. He led his mercenaries in an in a single day raid, capturing the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Navy District in Rostov-on-Don earlier than breakfast time with no shot being fired.
One other detachment of Wagner males rolled northwards, coming to inside 200km of Moscow by late afternoon — earlier than Prigozhin abruptly ordered his males again to base.
The insurgent warlord invoked the wrath of Putin, who on the morning of the rebellion took to the nationwide airwaves to denounce it as a stab within the again. And, though a compromise deal was brokered by Aleksander Lukashenko of Belarus to permit Prigozhin’s males to relocate to that nation, the Wagner chief already appeared a marked man.
He disappeared for a time earlier than showing in a grainy night-time video addressing his males at a brand new base in Belarus, popped up on the sidelines of an Africa summit hosted by Putin in Saint Petersburg, and, solely this week, appeared in a video apparently shot in Africa saying his mercenaries have been having fun with the 50-degree warmth.
Prigozhin began out as a small-time criminal in Saint Petersburg the place he spent a number of years in jail for theft, theft and fraud. On rising from jail, he opened a sizzling canine stand along with his mom and, as he constructed up a restaurant enterprise, fell in with Putin, who on the time was deputy mayor of Russia’s northern capital.
Prigozhin’s Harmony catering enterprise went on to win a string of presidency contracts — together with to provide rations to the navy. Gaining standing in Putin’s clannish community of affect and patronage, Prigozhin established the Wagner mercenary group on the time of Russia’s partial occupation of Ukraine in 2014. He solely publicly admitted to main Wagner final September, nevertheless, months after Putin’s full-scale invasion.
Quickly after, he established himself as one of the crucial high-profile leaders of Russia’s battle on Ukraine — touring prisons to recruit convicts and throwing his males right into a profitable however bloody assault on Bakhmut that delivered the one main battlefield victory of Russia’s winter offensive in Japanese Ukraine.
“A caterer ought to know that revenge is a dish greatest served chilly,” mentioned a U.S. official aware of Russia coverage.
Infuriated by a scarcity of logistical backup, Prigozhin quickly fell out with Russia’s excessive command and protection ministry. He took to posting profanity-laden video rants on Telegram, the social media community broadly adopted in Russia.
In a single, he stood earlier than rows of lifeless Wagner males at night time time, yelling “the place’s the fucking ammunition?” at Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the overall workers. Prigozhin’s rants left him wanting dangerously remoted, as Putin caught along with his loyal, if incompetent, navy management.
Maggie Miller contributed reporting.
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