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Again in November of final yr, Open Supply Intelligence (OSINT) maven Defmon dug into satellite images of a Russian logistics base at a coal mine in Yuvileine, on the outskirts of Luhansk metropolis. Sifting by means of the pictures, he discovered a number of warehouse complexes with dozens of automobiles orbiting, a big fueling station, a upkeep space, extra buildings that appeared to be administrative or barracks, and convoys of automobiles on the roads across the complicated.
Exterior the vary of GMLRS rocket artillery, Russia had constructed itself a serious logistics base subsequent to the solely main Russian-occupied metropolis, Luhansk.
The existence of this logistics heart, 90 kilometers from the entrance line, supplied main impetus for delivering ATAMS long-range rockets to Ukraine. Ukraine’s profitable Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensive had been preceded by main disruptions to Russia’s logistics networks. Related future success would require the identical type of preparation work (or “shaping” because the navy youngsters say). Ukraine nonetheless hasn’t acquired these American-made rockets, however they did get long-range cruise missiles from the UK and, quickly, France. After which this occurred.
So similar to GMLRS rockets hampered Russian logistics forward of Ukraine’s Kherson and Kharkiv counteroffensives, Ukraine is degrading Russian logistics and command management with their new longer-range toys. And if ATACMS finals will get greenly? Oh Lordy.
The arrival of American cluster bombs clearly has Russia rattled, as they instantly claimed Ukraine had hit the power with them, citing a number of explosions. That may very well be the sound of ammunition cooking off, nevertheless it may merely be the arrival of a number of Storm Shadows. That coal mine facility was a target-rich surroundings.
Nonetheless, American cluster munitions are coming, and my god I want that they had been quietly shipped. The hysteria over them has reached absurd heights, one thing that Vladimir Putin has been comfortable to gasoline.
The concept Russia hasn’t used them is laughably absurd, and there may be loads of proof to show it. This video has been making the rounds right now on Twitter:
However there are even higher ones I nonetheless clearly keep in mind, like this one:
Or this one:
And so they’ve been utilizing them in Ukraine lengthy earlier than 2022:
I appeared for one which actually caught with me from the earliest days however I can’t discover it. It was a automotive driving by means of a cluster bomb barrage, seen by way of the sprint cam. It was harrowing, to say the least. Level is, there’s nothing new about Russia utilizing cluster bombs. Ukraine has had them too, and Turkey has provided them with further cluster munitions, although Ukraine makes use of theirs strictly towards navy targets (what an idea).
However the problem is now magnified as a result of Turkey delivered their quietly, and numbers seem to have been restricted. The U.S. has a huge stockpile, and guarantees to alleviate a lot of the ammunition scarcity which have slowed the Ukrainian advance. Will these cluster munitions create an unexploded ordinance (UXO) downside sooner or later? Positive, however there’s already a extreme UXO downside within the locations that Ukraine will use them—the entrance strains. There are components of Ukraine that will probably be inaccessible to civilians for years, possibly a long time. Ukrainian cluster bomblets will probably be a fraction of that downside.
In the meantime, who can level out what’s unsuitable with this tweet:
It’s the peak of irresponsibility to uncritically report Putin’s lies with out the complete context. To be clear, the story does have that context, however how many individuals will click on by means of and be capable of learn the paywalled story? RTFS (learn the fucking story) doesn’t apply when the story is inaccessible to most.
In the meantime, the Wall Road Journal handed it properly whereas reporting on Donald Trump’s newest idiocy:
Former President Donald Trump, who seeks to return to the White Home subsequent yr, has accused Biden of risking World Conflict III by supplying Ukraine with cluster munitions, a kind of ammunition that Russia has been utilizing in abundance, and boasted that he may finish the battle inside 24 hours, with out saying how.
Sure, Russia has been utilizing cluster munitions in abundance, along with thermobaric munitions and incendiary munitions and something it may throw at Ukrainians in need of chemical or nuclear weapons. And in contrast to Ukraine, Russia has been delivering that payload towards civilian targets.
For the “Ukraine doesn’t have air help” individuals, what do they assume American air energy does on the battlefield? It does stuff like this:
Actually, I don’t know what magic activity individuals assume air help does in a near-peer struggle (versus the counterinsurgency operations of the Conflict on Terror). It destroys enemy gear, provide depots, and command and management facilities behind the entrance strains. Drones and HIMARS/MLRS are caring for all that on this struggle. Ukraine’s issues don’t have anything to do with air help, and the whole lot to do with an absence of mine-clearing gear and correct mixed arms coaching, whereas coping with Russia’s massed artillery—all of which might be tough beneath the very best circumstances, for the best-trained fight brigades.
Ukraine has been systematically degrading Russian artillery, logistics, and management for a number of months now, which is precisely what the U.S. could be doing if this was their struggle.
Additionally:
Early Sunday (American time zones), a slew of Russian sources claimed Ukraine had liberated
Staromaiorske, south of Velyka Novosilka within the path of Mariupol.
I’ll pull again the map so you’ll be able to see the place precisely that is:
As thrilling as that appeared, by no means wager on Russian sources, even after they say what you wish to hear. Ukraine’s common workers later introduced that “the Armed Forces of Ukraine management the northern a part of Staromaiorske, Donetsk area.” A subsequent assertion claimed that “Within the Shakhtarsk sector, within the northern a part of Staromaiorske, Donetsk Oblast, the enemy made an unsuccessful try and regain misplaced floor.” They each say that Ukraine controls the northern a part of the settlement, besides the second assertion provides that Russia made one among their bizarre outside-their-trenches counterattacks. Nonetheless, that northern half sits increased than the remainder of the settlement, possible making it untenable for Russian defenders to remain.
This axis of strategy seems to be bearing essentially the most fruit for Ukraine, and that could be a superb factor. The strategy towards Mariupol solely has a single defensive trench system, not like the layers upon layers seen within the path of Melitopol to the west of right here.
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