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Hey, have a look at that, the Pentagon lastly admits {that a} Russian BTG is just not actually a BTG.
Pentagon retains saying stuff like “Russia has 106 BTGs in Ukraine,” however that’s actually gibberish. On paper, a Russian BTG ought to have 600-800 troopers, 10 tanks, and 40 infantry preventing autos (together with assorted artillery, air protection, and logistics/help autos). In actuality, deployed BTGs hardly ever, if ever, arrived at full energy, largely due to grift, but in addition as a result of conscripts assigned to these models weren’t legally allowed to deploy exterior of Russia (although it occurred typically, it wasn’t widespread). At this level, Russian BTGs are largely shattered remnants. To show that time, let me let you know the story of Dovhenke, simply 26 kilometers (~16 miles) southeast of the Izyum salient.
Russians know the city as Dolgen’koye, and it’s at the moment blocking Russia’s southern advance. Just some kilometers south of the city, a rail line nonetheless feeds provides to Sloviansk (and Kramatorsk). Its worth is apparent. Extra ambitiously, any try to encircle these Ukrainian strongholds at Slovyansk and Kramatorsk run by way of Dovhenke. The city had a pre-war inhabitants of 850, so we’re speaking just a few farmhouses and sheds. This isn’t an city stronghold.
In the meantime, estimates put Russia’s presence within the Izyum entrance at 22 BTGs, Russia’s largest focus of firepower in your complete nation.
Bear in mind, 22 BTGs technically ought to imply 220 tanks, 880 infantry preventing autos, a buttload of artillery, and near 18,000 troopers. Dovhenke is simply down the street from Izyum. Ought to be a straightforward pickings, proper? Russia took Izyum on April 1, there’s been loads of time for progress!
Dmitri on Twitter has been dutifully translating Russian-language accounts of the warfare, and he stumbled onto an actual treasure, the diary of a Russian contract volunteer. Half I talks about how Viktor ended up in Ukraine within the first place. It’s fascinating, for certain, notably in his dialogue on how little coaching and preparation volunteers obtained. However Half II is one thing else. You see, Viktor spent a month with models preventing the battle of Dovhenke.
On 10 April, myself and 4 extra individuals ended up within the first firm of the 752th regiment positioned on the defence in shrubbery at altitude 200 to the south of Kamenka village. Commanding the corporate was Sr. Lieutenant Guzaev. An actual officer and an excellent particular person… Type and humane… Within the firm (if it may be known as an organization) there have been 8 individuals along with firm’s starshina who by no means went into assaults. After we joined, the corporate consisted of 13 individuals.
An organization is 4 platoons, every of which ought to have 30-40 soldiers. Every platoon usually has 4 sections, so round 7-10 troopers every. So, what ought to’ve been an organization with 120-160 troopers, in actual fact had 13. That’s, at finest, simply 10% of full energy. It was part pretending to be an organization.
Anyway, Viktor set out for an assault on Dovhenke, however they bought misplaced or one thing. Perhaps it was intentional sabotage by the “firm” commander. They misplaced a man as a result of he was so out of practice that he began to have “coronary heart aching.” That proved fortuitous for Viktor, as a result of he was ordered to remain again with the “injured,” regardless of not having been hit by something apart from oblique mortar hearth. The subsequent morning…
Many firm commanders within the two battalions of the 752th regiment advised their fighters that we’re being despatched to a certain loss of life, for the reason that Ukrainians are effectively ready. So that they mentioned – resolve for your self if you wish to go or not. 4 fifths of us (if no more) refused to go. So did I.
They’re already what, 90% understrength, after which one other 80% resolve to not proceed. This was the closest to fight Viktor bought. The remainder of this information he bought second-hand from different fighters.
Additionally, who says “signal me up!” with that pitch?
They left at 10AM and solely by 4PM managed to achieve 600 meters from the village. They have been exhausted. All this time they marched beneath heavy mortar and artillery shelling. Useless and wounded began showing. After we reported to our battalion commander Main Vasyura about useless and wounded, he stubborn: ‘depart them and maintain advancing!!!’.
Bear in mind, Russia supposedly has 22 BTGs within the space—220 tanks and near 1,000 infantry preventing autos. Numerous vans too. What are they doing rucking six hours merely to get to the outskirts of city, with none armor help, and no autos to move them? So after all, as predicted by these commanders, they bought smashed, suffered heavy casualties, and needed to retreat.
So that they retreated. Everybody was exhausted. It was very tough carrying the wounded. We got here again at 11PM. One of many volunteers, Andrey from Kursk who got here along with me mentioned that many merely ran off whereas retreating. He yelled at them to assist pull out the wounded, however they did not assist. He mentioned he needed to seize an assault rifle and begin capturing of their backs… Thus, the grenade launcher platoon commander, Captain Nikolaev who was dragged for 4 hours, died from blood loss… I did not know him personally, however everybody mentioned he was an excellent particular person… In order that was an assault on Dolgen’koye on 20 April…
Critically, not a single infantry preventing car or truck to assist carry the wounded again? You are going to inform me they’ve all that supposed fight energy, they usually made these guys march 4-6 hours every approach, with no car help? Or perhaps Ukraine has completed such a superb job interdicting gasoline provides, that Russia actually can’t transfer its autos.
Wanting forward, I’ll say that based mostly on the truth that totally different models tried to take Dolgen’koye, I feel that our command merely had the duty of taking Dolgen’koye and easily despatched in everybody they might. It bought to some extent the place in early Might they began sending solely 7 individuals to assault!!
WUT
New volunteers have been instantly thrown onto Dolgen’koye upon arrival to Ukraine. There have been no extra officers so that they have been choosing essentially the most hardened ones among the many volunteers (ones who fought in Chechnya and Syria), appointed them as seniors, gave them radios and despatched them to assault… On the finish of April they delivered to us round 18 individuals who superior as a big group of 120. They mentioned that other than them another unit attacked Dolgen’koye from one other path. Maybe that’s the reason they reached Dolgen’koye with none mortar shelling. They’d 300-400 meters to go once they got here beneath crossfire from two machine weapons… Even nearer to them have been positions of Ukrainian assault riflemen. They began fight. Our guys additionally had machine weapons and RPGs. As I understood they killed at the very least 6 assault riflemen however needed to retreat attributable to Ukrainian machine weapons which they could not suppress. Most certainly the machine weapons have been positioned in well-fortified positions. The blokes mentioned that if that they had a little bit assist, if the machine weapons have been suppressed with helicopters or tanks, then they might have entered Dolgen’koye…
If Russia had 22 functioning BTGs within the Izyum salient, they wouldn’t be throwing the freshest meat into that grinder. Their very own officers say “it’s a suicide mission,” and but they maintain executing the order from who-knows-what-general who bought his rank by being so silly, he would by no means pose a menace to Putin’s regime. “We bought 120? Throw them in! Frontal assault. Oh, solely 18 returned? Smush them with these different survivors, and let’s do it once more!”
Observe that Russia misplaced over 100 males on this assault … due to two machine weapons. Two. A tank would take out these ready machine gun nests. However once more, Russia couldn’t spare a single one. (And to be truthful, if that they had, it doubtless would’ve been taken out by an NLAW or Javelin. However at the very least Russia would give these poor souls a preventing probability.)
On the very least, you’d assume Russia would do them the courtesy of a trip to their loss of life, as a substitute of letting them arrive to the entrance line wiped after a 4-6 hour march, lugging all their weapons and ammunition with them.
In Might they introduced the remnants of ‘Bars’ (skilled reservists from all of Russia) – 14 individuals. They assaulted Dolgen’koye for a month and remained within the space. As I perceive it, they have been connected to the management of our depraved division. In complete, 340 of them arrived to Ukraine. After a month of shelling solely 57 remained. Furthermore, half of the survivors have been on the headquarters. Most of them have been wounded. They by no means had a single firefight, all of the losses got here from Ukrainian artillery hearth…
That is what occurs once you don’t defend your flanks, and it’s the rationale I at all times mentioned the Izyum salient would fall. Bear in mind this picture from again in April?
I wrote on the time how Ukrainian artillery may arrange store to the west and whittle away Russian forces. Viktor confirms that’s precisely what’s occurring.
Now the Pentagon say Russia has “switched to smaller models,” which is hilariously understated. That is after spending the final two months predicting a giant Russian combined-arms massed offensive within the Donbas that was simply across the nook. It was clear from the beginning that this this was by no means going to occur. Russia’s solely play, from the very begin of the warfare, has been drip-drip-drip assaults, by no means capable of open any spigot. Are you able to think about these Ukrainian defenders at Dovhenke watching one other wave of untrained, under-equipped, infantry stumble in, half useless from their brutal march, with zero armor or air help? It’s a turkey shoot.
After which individuals surprise 1) why Russia by no means superior from their preliminary Izyum positions, regardless of all that supposed massed firepower, and a pair of) why Mark and I aren’t panicking in regards to the Popasna salient.
I actually want we had a greater method to gauge Russia’s fight forces apart from “x variety of BTGs.” When Russian corporations sit at 13 untrained volunteers, 90% understrength, it’s clear the time period “BTG” has zero which means.
As for immediately’s progress, the larger story continues to be the Popasna salient.
Nonetheless, this nook of Ukraine has one thing we haven’t seen anyplace else this warfare—hills. For a military that has struggled to advance on flat terrain, it will current an entire new problem.
We’ll check out the realm’s geography in a future replace.
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kos
All that motion Mark noticed earlier immediately, round Kharkiv’s Rubizhne, seems it was Russian advances.
The Popasna salient is extra shielded from Ukrainian artillery than the Izyum one, however the space is geographically hillier, providing extra safety to defenders. And people traces are beginning to stretch out, and we all know what occurs to Russian advances when their traces stretch out. Simply evaluate the scale of the Izyum salient to the increasing Popasna one.
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