[ad_1]
A former Ukrainian presidential adviser has warned that Kyiv’s forces won’t be able to carry on to Avdiivka, the Donetsk city the place fierce combating is raging.
Till January 2023, Oleksii Arestovych was a communications adviser for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier than resigning after he confronted criticism for saying {that a} Russian missile that hit a constructing in Dnipro on January 14 had been shot down by Ukrainian air protection forces. After Ukrainian lawmakers referred to as for his dismissal, Arestovych apologized for his remarks however since then has criticized the Ukrainian counteroffensive which began in June.
This month, Russia launched a serious offensive on Avdiivka, which lies on the entrance line in japanese Ukraine and is taken into account the gateway to town of Donetsk, which has been occupied by Russia and its proxy forces since 2014. Preventing has intensified in latest days with British navy intelligence saying that there have been a excessive variety of Russian casualties with out mentioning Ukrainian losses.
However in an interview posted by a Russian-language Telegram channel that reviews concerning the conflict in Ukraine, Politika Strani (Politics of the Nation), Arestovych gave a pessimistic tackle Kyiv’s hopes. “My forecast is gloomy. I’m positive that there’s a excessive chance we’ll lose Avdiivka.
“The state of affairs is tragic. All of the navy know that troops from the southern entrance have been transferred to Avdiivka,” he stated “This implies goodbye to the southern offensive. The Russians are withdrawing three armies from close to Kupiansk for Avdiivka, and we perceive that they may more than likely push by,” he stated.
Arestovych’s downbeat evaluation contrasts with the views of some Western analysts who believed Ukraine might cling on in Avdiivka the place Russian forces have suffered excessive gear and troop losses and confronted challenges conducting frontal mechanized assaults. The Institute for the Examine of Warfare, a U.S.-based suppose tank, cited a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger on Sunday as discussing difficulties which may be contributing to a “positional impasse” for Russian offensive operations round Avdiivka.
Arestovych stated that if Avdiivka had been taken, it could be “a verdict on the system” of Ukraine’s navy which might see it lose its “seventh metropolis in a row.” Regardless of earlier Ukrainian navy successes during which Russian losses are touted, “it all the time ends the identical means,” he added.
Ukraine’s forces retook the southern metropolis of Kherson final November, however there was gradual progress from Kyiv almost 5 months into this 12 months’s counteroffensive geared toward recapturing Russian-occupied territory. In the meantime, Ukraine’s Basic Workers has stated its forces are keeping off Russian offensive operations throughout different components of the entrance.
“The Russians evidently noticed a weak spot and opening in Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka and went for it,” Vuk Vuksanovic, affiliate on the London Faculty of Economics thinktank, LSE IDEAS, informed Newsweek.
“This opening was evidently generated with heavy Ukrainian casualties from the unsuccessful counter-offensive. Whereas the Russians have losses, it’s a rather more necessary query what the Ukrainian losses are given the Russian preponderance in artillery.”
Arestovych is a former officer of Ukraine’s Chief Directorate of Intelligence and his downbeat evaluation of Kyiv’s probabilities comes on the heels of his criticism of Ukraine’s counteroffensive that he gave in a prolonged submit on X (previously Twitter).
On October 15, he criticized the assets Ukraine expended in combating for Bakhmut which is “nothing however a modest operational and tactical success.”
He additionally condemned “strategic errors” in Kyiv’s home and international coverage, including that the conflict was at an “deadlock” during which “the Russians can’t defeat us, we can’t defeat them.”
Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian Protection Ministry for remark.
Supply: Institute for the Examine of Warfare and AEI’s Crucial Threats Undertaking.
Unusual Data
Newsweek is dedicated to difficult typical knowledge and discovering connections within the seek for widespread floor.
Newsweek is dedicated to difficult typical knowledge and discovering connections within the seek for widespread floor.
[ad_2]
Source link