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Very like Susie Izzard (Drink!) says chiropractors “LIVE FOR THE NOISE!” I too stay for the noise of the offseason. We are able to’t get rather more than Shohei Ohtani and his reps donated to us, or at the very least their strategies of sending the baseball press into orbit did. There needs to be rather more to come back, however the greatest transfer to be made is now on paper (although the Dodgers nonetheless haven’t stated a lot), what is going to truly occur on the sector?
It appears a dumbass query, on condition that L.A. simply added the very best hitter within the league final 12 months to a lineup that already had the fourth and sixth finest hitter from final season, when it comes to wRC+. That’s an completely terrifying 1-3 for any pitcher beginning a recreation or reliever who’s going to must navigate it with the sport on the road late.
Nonetheless, there are a few small components to contemplate right here when excited about the Dodgers going 130-32 or one thing silly. One, the Dodgers truly had a reasonably first rate DH final season and two, was Ohtani’s 2023 one thing of an outlier?
Take it so as. Final summer season, J.D. Martinez manned the DH spot for almost all of the season. And whereas he could also be three days older than water, he was nonetheless fairly efficient. Martinez slashed .271/.321/.579 for a 135 wRC+. Clearly, that’s probably not all that near Ohtani’s MVP season, but it surely’s nonetheless fairly efficient. There’s actually extra wins coming from Ohtani taking the DH ABs than Martinez. However Martinez’s season isn’t all that removed from what had been the traditional Ohtani season earlier than 2023, and that is the place there’s one thing of a rub. Properly, not a rub. A lightweight pat, perhaps.
Ohtani’s 2023, as entertaining and stupid-ridiculous because it was, isn’t regular in an entire host of how. And one in all them was that it wasn’t a standard Ohtani season on the plate. That doesn’t imply Ohtani hadn’t been a fantastic hitter earlier than, however he hadn’t been something just like the celestial being he was final season. In Ohtani’s earlier full campaigns (all the time throw out 2020), his wRC+ outputs have been 149, 120, 150 and 142. Final 12 months it was 180. These earlier 4 marks are nonetheless borderline MVP numbers in some years, however clearly his 2023 is simply one thing solely totally different. Sure, Ohtani has two MVPs, however his first in 2021 was due to his dual-threat as a pitcher, as Bryce Harper, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. all had higher offensive seasons than he did then.
Even the traditional Ohtani season is an enchancment on what Martinez did for the Dodgers final 12 months, but it surely truly isn’t an enormous leap. The query turns into if Ohtani’s .433 wOBA in 2023 is now the brand new regular.
It may very well be. Ohtani hit the ball more durable than he ever had final season, seeing his common exit velocity jumped two full MPH to 94.4 in addition to jumps in his barrel-rate and hard-hit charge. You don’t want the numbers to inform you that Ohtani spent the season turning baseballs into flubber, however that’s the information.
There wasn’t a lot change in Ohtani’s strategy, swinging at nearly the identical variety of pitches out and in of the zone as we’d seen beforehand in his profession. The large distinction was the work that Ohtani did on pitches excessive and away from him within the zone, and pitches above the strike zone. It was once that pitchers may very well be considerably secure heading for 10 o’clock within the strike zone (from the catcher’s perspective), the place Ohtani solely hit .305 and solely slugged .385 in 2022, and .286 and .357 in 2021. Final 12 months, these numbers grew to become .440 and 1.000. That’s an issue for America.
Ohtani additionally crushed pitches above the zone, which he had by no means performed earlier than, slugging .704 on pitches above the zone and inside and .534 on pitches above the zone and outdoors. He didn’t even crack .200 on any of these measures in 2022. Ohtani simply determined he wasn’t going to get beat up within the zone or above it.
Is {that a} technique that works as he heads into his 30s? That’s normally when batters begin to wrestle with the regularly growing velocity they see from pitchers. However clearly, Ohtani is an alien and never on the mercy of regular human deficiencies. No less than, that’s the working idea.
There’s additionally the well being issue. Ohtani has solely performed a full slate of video games as a hitter in two of his 5 seasons. So if Ohtani have been to revert again to the “actually good hitter” kind as a substitute of his “Ares on meth” of 2023 whereas coping with accidents which have form of grow to be customized, properly, it’s nonetheless an enchancment by a measurable margin on what the Dodgers had final 12 months. It’s simply not leaping over Springfield Gorge.
There’s additionally the query of decline from both or each Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. Freeman is getting into his age-34 season, having simply set a profession excessive in wRC+. Betts had his second-best season ever at age 30. All three of those guys are prone to be within the MVP dialogue, however all three may also simply not be what they have been in 2023 as a result of it’s actually exhausting to be what they have been in 2023.
Look, this isn’t meant to be one thing that Diamondbacks or Giants followers print out, chop up and snort. The Dodgers are going to be superb subsequent 12 months and we are able to say that earlier than they commerce for Tyler Glasnow, signal Yoshinobu Yamamoto, reanimate Warren Spahn, clone Corey Seager from some DNA they nonetheless have mendacity across the clubhouse, and get the Mariners to promote them Julio Rodriguez for a lifetime provide of Reese’s, and the six different issues they’ll most likely do. We’re simply speaking a few crew that wins 100 video games on the reg, and can achieve this once more. That simply is likely to be all they do. Which is a reasonably unhappy factor for any rival to hope for, however that’s the place MLB is as of late.
After which Ohtani will get again on the mound in 2025 and all of us die.
Comply with Sam on Twitter @Felgate and on Bluesky @Felgate.bsky.social
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