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On Wednesday, kos famous that there was proof that Ukraine had made further use of the ATACMS long-range missiles just lately delivered by the US. Russia made be aware of it too, as a result of Telegram and state media sources had been each overrun with claims that ATACMS launches had been shot down.
The issue was that the portion of the missile that the Russians stored exhibiting was basically the booster, not the payload. Reasonably than exhibiting indicators of being shredded by any air protection system, each of these ATACMS seemed as if that they had performed their job, delivered their explosives, and easily dropped to the Earth, expended. It additionally appeared greater than coincidental that there had been some vital explosions in the identical space the place the ATACMS boosters had been discovered.
Now plainly Russian Telegram is ‘fessing up. The 2 ATACMS rockets had been destroyed … however not as the results of any air protection. As an alternative, “It’s precisely like this. Two ATACMS missiles had been destroyed because of a direct hit on the place of the Russian Armed Forces air protection group in Luhansk area and at the price of 3 S-400 methods deployed there.”
Really, this information has are available levels. At first, the thought was that Ukraine had managed to take down a pair of S-300 methods. Which is a giant deal.
But when these missiles really took out three $600 million S-400 air protection methods, then the funding in the ATACMS rockets was significantly price it. This follows the concentrating on of not less than one and presumably two S-400 methods that Ukraine reportedly took down in Crimea in September utilizing a modified Neptune anti-ship cruise missile. If Russia has really misplaced 5 S-400 methods over the previous two months, that’s between $2.5 billion and $3 billion in direct losses.
However actually, it’s greater than that. As a result of the S-400 has been a giant worldwide vendor for Russia, and what buyer goes to enroll in a missile protection system that has been straight taken out by each cruise and ballistic missiles? What precisely does the S-400 defend in opposition to?
In any case, the current profitable makes use of of ATACMS are reportedly inflicting Russia to scramble, together with eradicating plane from fields at each Berdyansk within the south and Luhansk within the east following the massively profitable assault that knocked out 21 helicopters at Berdyansk final week. (That quantity may very well become an underestimate.)
By forcing Russia to maneuver its plane out of ATACMS vary, Ukraine has additionally made them much less efficient in offering air assist assist to Russian forces on the entrance. The elevated distance to the entrance means they have to carry much less ordnance, have much less time to loiter searching for targets, and have much less flexibility in taking routes that keep away from air protection threats. Precisely what number of ATACMS Ukraine has isn’t identified, however thus far, they’ve made each shot depend.
There’s been some debate over whether or not Avdiivka actually is “the brand new Bakhmut”—a location that Russia is set to seize at any value, together with “meat waves” of low-quality troops being despatched to their deaths for minimal beneficial properties.
Russia’s fierce Avdiivka assault is now in its third week. The variety of movies exhibiting wrecked tanks, smashed armored carriers, blasted vehicles, and Russian infantry being taken out en masse is so prolific that it appears unimaginable. Over the previous few days, because the variety of Russian troops despatched out with out tanks or different armor to display them from assaults has elevated, a few of these movies have develop into completely ghastly. I counsel excessive warning if you happen to search around social media for motion round Avdiivka at this level as a result of there are numerous, many movies circulating proper now that fall into the “you possibly can’t unsee it” class. Sure, it’s Russian troopers. No, that doesn’t make it any simpler to observe or any higher on your soul.
That is additionally troublesome, however in a really completely different manner.
On Sunday and Monday, it appeared that Russia had made a major advance despite extraordinarily heavy losses. On the north aspect, they stretched out their space of management by over a kilometer, making a rising salient across the city of Krasnohorivka.
Since Wednesday, open supply intelligence analyst Deep State has marked the restrict of the Russian advance on the rail line operating between Krasnohorivka and Stepove. Nonetheless, different sources have indicated a rising, if slender, space of Russian management spreading west to the north of Stepove. The Ukrainian Common Employees reported combating close to Stepove on Thursday as a part of 15 assaults turned again within the Avdiivka space.
Different sources have indicated that Russia is making an attempt to succeed in the closely blast-damaged coke plant (that’s coke, like that utilized in making metal, fairly than Coke as in served ice chilly) about 500 meters south of the “waste mountain” which has come underneath sporadic Russian management.
Persevering with to push west would appear to open Russia’s salient to a counterattack from the north or south. Nonetheless, if Russia can transfer south and attain the outdated coking plant, they may have the ability to parlay this right into a foothold within the excessive northwest of Avdiivka. Then Russia might repeat precisely what occurred at Bakhmut—advance slowly, block by block, buying and selling heavy losses for beneficial properties.
Up till now, the southern prong of the Russian assault gave the impression to be making little if any progress, with Ukrainian artillery suppressing any try to maneuver a lot past Vodyane. However Russia has reportedly pulled further reserves into the world in an effort to proceed the assault. All of this makes it appear as if Avdiivka does bear a resemblance to occasions at Bakhmut.
Vladimir Putin desires a win. Russian generals are attempting to provide him one. As we’ve seen prior to now, Russia counts sacrificing tens of 1000’s to attain a “victory” that results in nothing as a win.
It could not fairly be the 55 Russian tanks that Ukraine reported destroyed on the primary day of the Avdiivka offensive, however this nonetheless represents a large one-day loss.
It’s exhausting to say how a lot of this occurred at Avdiivka. The Ukrainian army can be reporting a pair of failed Russian assaults north of Kupyansk, 4 assaults north of Bakhmut, and 7 assaults within the Klishchiivka space south of Bakhmut. Russia has reportedly made some beneficial properties north of Bakhmut within the space close to the Berkhivka reservoir, however the change doesn’t seem like very giant. Ukraine has continued to carry Klishchiivka and Andrivka within the south.
South of Avdiivka, Russia reportedly made a number of failed assaults at Marinka. The dividing line in that metropolis seems to be about the place it was three months in the past, regardless of actually dozens of reported assaults.
Notably, Russia doesn’t seem to have performed any assaults in Zaporizhzhia or to have made any try to regain management of the world misplaced alongside the Dnipro River in Kherson.
Ha, ha! He made a fumble and everybody scrambled to alter in order that he can be proper. Humorous.
Donald Trump certainly envies that degree of toadying.
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