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American intelligence officers mentioned Tuesday they now had “excessive confidence” that the blast at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza final week was the results of a Palestinian rocket that broke up mid-flight, and that no Israeli weapon was concerned within the explosion.
The officers mentioned, nonetheless, that quite a few mysteries nonetheless remained in regards to the incident. These embody how many individuals had been killed or injured when, by the U.S. account, the warhead of a Palestinian rocket landed within the car parking zone of the hospital. However they mentioned there was little injury to the hospital itself, and no collapse of the construction.
U.S. intelligence companies launched no new imagery or different new proof to make their case. As a substitute, they mentioned their strengthened evaluation got here from Israeli intercepts of Palestinian armed teams and publicly out there video. These movies, the U.S. officers mentioned, allowed them to evaluate that the rocket was launched from Gaza and, after a “catastrophic motor failure,” the warhead fell on the hospital’s car parking zone. The officers, who spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate delicate data, mentioned there was no proof an Israeli launch may have been accountable.
U.S. officers mentioned their evaluation was additionally primarily based on communications intercepts supplied by the Israelis and pictures of the explosion and aftermath. Final week, U.S. officers mentioned their early intelligence confirmed that the blast was attributable to an armed Palestinian group, rebutting Palestinian claims that an Israeli strike prompted the explosion. U.S. spy companies didn’t launch detailed proof on the time to help their evaluation.
On Tuesday, U.S. intelligence officers reaffirmed their evaluation that Israel was not answerable for the explosion. The analysis mirrored a better diploma of certainty by U.S. intelligence officers that Israel was not answerable for the blast.
Israel has mentioned the explosion, which resulted in a major variety of casualties, was attributable to Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a gaggle allied with Hamas. The group mentioned Israel’s accusations that considered one of its rockets malfunctioned and hit the hospital had been “false and baseless.” Hamas has not supplied any documentation of Israeli involvement. The New York Instances has not independently verified both aspect’s claims.
The hospital blast triggered protests across the area. In an early declare, Hamas mentioned that the hospital had been hit by an Israeli missile. President Biden, flying to Israel for a go to, mentioned final week that preliminary proof was that the strike had been “performed by the opposite workforce,’’ however that the conclusion was preliminary.
However the preliminary account by Hamas took maintain, particularly at a time when Israel was finishing up airstrikes upfront of a possible floor assault supposed to get rid of Hamas after the phobia assault that the Israeli authorities says killed greater than 1,400 folks.
The most recent American evaluation is partially primarily based on what has not been found. A senior intelligence official mentioned there have been no photographs of any Palestinians displaying an Israeli weapon from the bomb web site.
U.S. officers mentioned solely mild injury was sustained on the web site, which is in step with the premise of a Gaza-made rocket that broke up in flight, moderately than an Israeli munition placing the hospital.
Photographs of a fireball on the hospital web site, and photos taken after the very fact exhibiting burned vehicles within the compound’s car parking zone, are in step with a malfunctioning missile, in keeping with U.S. officers.
The American evaluation additionally depends closely on intercepts supplied by Israeli intelligence companies. U.S. officers mentioned the Israelis have supplied a number of recordings that American intelligence companies say they’ve authenticated. All the recordings are secondhand accounts: members of Hamas discussing their perception that the explosion was attributable to an errant or malfunctioning rocket fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad. U.S. officers didn’t present recordings or transcriptions of those intercepts.
The declassified evaluation gives no particular data on the place U.S. intelligence officers assume a rocket inflicting the blast was launched from inside Gaza.
However the senior official mentioned the companies had been persevering with to research. If america will get extra data that may level in a distinct route, the official mentioned, intelligence companies will launch it.
On Monday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain mentioned his nation’s intelligence companies assessed {that a} Palestinian rocket fired from Gaza and aimed toward Israel was probably the reason for the deaths on the hospital.
“On the idea of the deep information and evaluation of our intelligence and weapons consultants, the British authorities judges that the explosion was probably attributable to a missile or a part of one which was launched from inside Gaza in the direction of Israel,” Mr. Sunak mentioned.
Final week, U.S. intelligence companies mentioned that they had been working to corroborate an Israeli evaluation that the explosion resulted from an errant rocket fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The variety of casualties from the explosion on the hospital stays in dispute.
U.S. officers estimated final week that between 100 and 300 folks had been killed, however mentioned the loss of life toll was probably on the low finish of that vary. On Tuesday, U.S. officers mentioned they solely had low confidence in that evaluation. The Hamas-run well being ministry in Gaza mentioned the loss of life toll was 471, a determine revised down from their earlier evaluation of 500.
U.S. officers mentioned on Tuesday that an correct depend of the individuals who died on the hospital was unimaginable to acquire due to a scarcity of unbiased sources.
Days after Hamas accused Israel of bombing a hospital in Gaza Metropolis and killing lots of of individuals, the armed Palestinian group has but to provide or describe any proof linking Israel to the blast, says it can’t discover the munition that hit the positioning and has declined to offer element to help its depend of the casualties.
The Hamas-run well being ministry has additionally declined to launch additional particulars about these 471 victims, and all traces of the munition have seemingly vanished from the positioning of the blast, including to the issue in assessing its provenance. Elevating additional questions on Hamas’s claims, the impression web site turned out to be the hospital car parking zone, and never the hospital itself.
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