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Extra data retains rising from Avdiivka, simply Russia’s largest catastrophe of the yr.
Ukriane’s claims during the last week, for the reason that begin of Russia’s Avdiivka assault, have been downright gaudy:
October 15: 8 tanks, 25 armored fight automobiles, 33 artillery
October 14: 9 tanks, 24 ACV, 26 artillery
October 13: 26 tanks, 49 ACV, 44 artillery
October 12: 42 tanks, 44 ACV, 32 artillery
October 11: 34 tanks, 91 ACV, 18 artillery
Open supply intelligence analysts have visually confirmed far fewer of those, and naturally, not all of those kills are from Avdiivka alone. Fight is raging throughout the whole entrance line. But on a typical day, Ukraine experiences 5-10 armored automobiles kills of all sorts. This hasn’t been an armor-centric battle in a very long time. The enormous claims coincide with Russia’s Avdiika assault.
However even what has been visually confirmed, over 50 items of armor round Avdiivka, is solely devastating to Russia. Something above that’s gravy.
A Russian war blogger breaks it down from their aspect:
How did the Russian command distinguish itself there? So as:
1. The enemy was outplayed with the focus of troops, the assault was so sudden that on the primary day all observers famous very weak artillery hearth from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The Ukrainians themselves admit to dropping floor early within the assault, clearly it wasn’t anticipated.
2. Thorough reconnaissance – for instance, a variety of commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been destroyed through the preparation of the offensive, strikes have been carried out on the command publish of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which have been profitable, and this didn’t result in the invention of the plans of the Russian command.
it’s not straightforward to hide an assault involving a whole lot of automobiles and their logistical prepare, particularly with Ukraine’s entry to each satellite tv for pc intelligence, and all of the drones. So sure, this was objectively a significant Russian accomplishment and Ukrainian failure.
The stuff about killing a bunch of Ukrainian commanders … it’s the kind of bullshit fluff they insert into each report to melt the blow of their criticisms. If Russia had taken out a significant Ukrainian command publish, we’d be seeing the video on 24-7 loop. And it’s pointless. Catching Ukraine without warning was spectacular sufficient.
3. To hurry up the breakthrough of Russian models by means of the protection line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reserves of high-precision weapons, together with LMURs [helicopter-launched missiles], have been created, and the interplay of floor models with helicopters was labored out. Additionally, to speed up the breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ protection strains, Russian troops are massively utilizing incendiary ammunition, with all the following penalties for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
That’s, we’re coping with a pre-prepared assault, fastidiously deliberate, for which reserves of fabric and technical gear have been created, together with high-precision weapons, a set of reconnaissance actions have been carried out, offensive teams of floor forces have been covertly ready for advance, and a severe detachment of strike aviation forces was allotted.
And what? After the primary penetrations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred reinforcements to the place of the breakthrough, together with artillery, and our penetrations through the first hours have been stopped. Now the advance of Russian troops has dropped to Bakhmut tempo—tens of meters per day at finest, the enemy is launching counterattacks.
I’ve famous repeatedly the previous few days, and over the course of the whole battle, that Ukraine enjoys a large benefit with its inside strains of communication.
The gap from Orikhiv, north of the massive Ukrainian advance round Robotyne, to Prokovsk, 60 kilometers (37 miles) west of Avdiivka, is simply 120 kilometers (75 miles). Models can cowl that distance in 2-3 hours. Add one other 2-3 hours to gas up, replenish provides, and deploy to Adviika, and Ukraine has simply bolstered the city in lower than half a day.
The consequence? As this battle blogger’s report notes, “our penetrations through the first hours have been stopped.”
Additionally, it’s exhausting to take severely any claims of reconnaissance when this occurred:
Any actual reconnaissance effort would pay attention to an uncovered mine belt on the advance route.
Russia caught Ukraine without warning. That’s just about it. The whole lot else was a cluster***.
That is what a positional impasse appears to be like like. And this has been written about on the channel greater than as soon as.
What has the Russian military not mastered that’s crucial on the tactical degree for a profitable breakthrough in an inexpensive time?
The primary is the isolation of the fight space. It’s clear that some actions have been taken on this course, however the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been capable of switch the mandatory reserves to the Avdeevka space. It is essential – if ours switch extra troops to this space, then the Ukrainian Armed Forces will do the identical. After which once more, and once more, this “commerce in human flesh” has no limits.
Ukraine can shortly plug any Russian breakthrough.
Sadly, we’ve seen the identical factor on the opposite aspect. Russia successfully plugged Ukraine’s breakthrough round Robotyne. Neither aspect can at the moment totally exploit a breach.
The second is counter-battery fight. The whole lot right here in the mean time is extra sophisticated than is often thought, we won’t broaden on the subject, we are going to merely state the truth that the CBF isn’t efficient sufficient. And this was sufficient to decelerate the compression of the Russian “pincers” to an acceptably sluggish charge for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Ha ha, this poor man can’t even muster up the power to speak about Russia’s disastrous artillery state of affairs. It’s been objectively clear for a very long time that Ukraine is dominating Russia within the artillery battle. Ukraine’s western tube and rocket artillery far outranges something that Russia fields, it’s extra correct, and it has higher surveillance and counter-battery radar to search out these Russian weapons.
In any case, one Russian propagandist claims that the “weapons went silent in Avdiivka,” which could imply Russia has given up its armored assault, no less than for now. Russia has been actually gunning for Avdiivka since 2014. They’re not about to surrender.
That is an attention-grabbing writeup on how the U.S. discovered an additional $6 billion for Ukraine by extra correctly accounting for donated out of date gear. Initially, the U.S. was accounting for alternative worth, versus the depreciated worth of the gear itself. So, an previous donated Humvee could be priced at the price of a model new up to date automobile, versus the resale worth of that ratty previous automobile. It was dumb, and it was rectified.
What I didn’t know was this:
Apparently, from an accounting perspective, these [MLRS] cluster rockets possess a unfavorable ebook worth. Initially marked for destruction, supplying them to Ukraine aligns with each battle aims and financial accountability.
Economics is usually framed as a ‘competitors over scarce assets.’ But, this case, particularly the excellence between “alternative price” and “ebook worth”, signifies in any other case. In actuality, it is extra like an artillery battle. HIMARS cluster rockets are plentiful, and to the US taxpayer, they maintain minimal worth. The US possesses greater than sufficient HIMARS rockets, able to decimating the Russian navy a number of occasions. These rockets, destined for destruction with out alternative, emphasize the easy enterprise case for transport these standard munitions.
In summation, the US boasts ample 155mm cluster munitions and HIMARS rockets to decisively affect the battle. These are basically cost-free. The main target ought to now be on offering Ukraine with sufficient firepower to reestablish their 1991 borders. This $6 billion accounting oversight inadvertently bolsters the President’s aims in Ukraine.
The author assumes the U.S. has countless provide of previous MLRS cluster rockets. That hasn’t been confirmed, as they have been supposedly being decommissioned over the previous decade. Regardless, the massive level right here is that cluster munitions price the U.S. cash as a result of decommissioning munitions prices cash. And so they have zero current worth as a result of the U.S. can’t use them.
The Pentagon is definitely saving cash by transferring all of its cluster munitions to Ukraine. It not has to spent the cash to get rid of them! So based mostly on established accounting procedures, we may give Ukraine all of the rounds and rockets with out impacting the quantity left in congressional approved Ukraine funding.
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