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Russia has an intensive community of entrenched defenses throughout the complete entrance line, however significantly in southern Ukraine, the place Ukraine’s largest strategic victory could be received—the severing of the “land bridge” connecting mainland Russia to the Crimean peninsula.
Brady Africk has completed unbelievable work utilizing satellite tv for pc imagery to map out these defenses:
Ukrainian forces pushing south haven’t even reached the primary line of these fortifications, as breach operations are brutally tough and costly in blood and gear.
However Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam opens up an intriguing new risk, as complete swaths of former reservoir empty out.
With the Kakhovka dam gone, the reservoir is emptying out.
What’s intriguing is the place a few of this new land is exhibiting up.
Right here is the reservoir earlier than, with the crimson signifying Russian management:
And now:
The reservoir south of Zaporizhzhia metropolis is emptied out and is open, drying land. And given the placement of the unique riverbed, there appears to be loads of room for that jap a part of the reservoir to proceed draining.
In different phrases, a whole new open strategy appears to be opening up south that bypasses Russia’s meticulously ready defensive traces.
In fact this shall be muddy for some time, and approaching large open mud flats in plain view of enemy drone surveillance may be show finally prohibitive. However on the very least Russia must be nervous, and can possible expend effort fortifying the newly uncovered areas.
However long term, this can lengthen the lively entrance, as what was as soon as an impassable reservoir will finally revert to that unique Dnipro river. And Ukraine has dam management additional up the river, that means it might reduce the river’s circulation, narrowing it even additional forward of an assault. That might put the Kakhovka Nuclear Energy Plant at Enerhodar (the slender chokepoint on the west fringe of the map above) in play for a Ukrainian counter assault, to not point out opening up new avenues south to Crimea.
Can be ironic if Russia’s weird determination to blow the rattling doesn’t simply price their treasured Crimea its water provide, but additionally permits Ukraine to bypass lots of their defenses.
Ummm….
He says his Jewish mates say Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy isn’t a Jew. I don’t assume that’s the way it works…
That is really proper close to the reservoir’s edge:
As you’ll be able to see on this map, Lobkove isn’t on the primary line of Russian defenses, which is instantly south, however not earlier than routing by the settlement of Pyatykhatky. But Russia is doing the very same factor they’re doing in Makarivka, additional east of right here—furiously counterattacking the Ukrainian advance as a substitute of retreating to their completely high-quality line of defense to the south. Management of the city has see-sawed forwards and backwards over the previous seven days. Certain, this slows down the Ukrainian advance, nevertheless it’s exponentially simpler for Ukraine to destroy Russian forces out within the open, than to root them out from entrenched defensive positions.
It’s utter weird that Russia insists on preventing for territory in entrance of its defenses. If Lobkove was that essential, like Makarivka, then Russia would’ve constructed its trenches in entrance of the settlement. Fact is, Lobkove isn’t essential, however the strategy to the south is. Russia is defending the strategic metropolis of Melitopol, not the irrelevant city of Lobkove.
But right here is Russia speeding reinforcements to carry Pyatykhatky, when their line is correct there subsequent door. Russian battle reporter WarGonzo studies:
It’s reported from the sphere that the enemy continues to be on the outskirts of the settlement and has entrenched himself in a number of homes, the place within the morning gentle armored automobiles approached together with the infantry. You’ll be able to’t hear the taking pictures battle in Pyatikhatki, our artillery is engaged on enemy positions.
As talked about earlier, if we enable much more delay in cleansing up the village, then the Ukrainians will usher in such various personnel and gear that the settlement must be deserted.
Oh my god, let Ukraine occupy this nothing-burger city! Make Ukraine really pay by having to breach the numerous defenses subsequent to it.
We’re really fortunate that Russia is that this silly.
No matter time Russia buys at the moment, Ukraine will get again on the again aspect after it breaches these lesser-manned trenches.
I’ve two favourite sort of battle movies. The primary is soldier coming dwelling to spouse/husband/baby/mother/canine movies. The opposite is stuff like this:
I can see sporadic “Ukraine Replace” tales for a 12 months after the battle ends, simply of movies of Ukraine rebuilding. And also you may all get uninterested in them and readership and commenting may fall off, however I received’t care, as a result of that is what makes the complete sacrifice value it.
And when you’re questioning why Russia wouldn’t merely destroy this bridge as soon as once more, the reply is easy—Russia would moderately kill civilians by focusing on residential residence blocks, than hit militarily vital targets. It’s been inexplicably that manner the complete battle, and Russia doesn’t appear to have any curiosity in adapting. It will moderately throw a genocidal mood tantrum than really try to win the battle.
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