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On Wednesday evening, Ukraine reportedly did what many had anticipated this week: benefit from a waning moon and Western night-vision gear to assault Russian positions alongside the southern entrance. The outcomes of those assaults aren’t totally generally known as Ukraine maintains operational silence, nevertheless it’s now clear that the counteroffensive is absolutely, really underway. And that features Leopard tanks being concerned in fight.
In the meantime, Russia has continued its personal assault within the west. After flooding the Kherson space by blowing up the Kakhovka Dam, Russian forces have reportedly destroyed a number of dams on smaller reservoirs within the space, together with getting ready nonetheless extra dams for destruction The purpose of all this appears to be to place as a lot water and dust between Russian forces and a possible Ukrainian counterattack throughout the river as potential, whereas nonetheless permitting Russian artillery to fireplace into Kherson. That it’s leaving individuals stranded on rooftops throughout the realm occupied by Russia doesn’t look like a priority.
4 days after Russian sources first started reporting Ukrainian assaults alongside a piece of the southern entrance, these assaults appear to be getting ever bigger and extra important. Moderately than simply small unit actions, it now appears as if no less than three full brigades are engaged within the space round Velyka Novosilka urgent Russian forces again.
However that does depart one large query that’s certainly of excessive curiosity to Russia: The place are Ukraine’s 9 different strike brigades?
Ukraine had reportedly created a dozen new brigades of forces skilled on each Western gear and Western techniques. As well as, a number of current models have been skilled to make use of choose Western gear after being rotated away from the entrance.
It now appears that Ukraine has launched assaults not simply within the three areas the place actions had been underway up till yesterday, but in addition effectively to the west, north of Melitopol and Tokmak.These assaults seem to have had success in transferring Russian forces again in no less than two places. As with nearly every thing presently underway, the knowledge accessible comes largely from Russian sources. Usually these sources are reporting how they’ve valiantly repelled Ukrainian troops and defended their positions. Solely the positions that Russia is defending maintain exhibiting a bent to float to the south.
On Wednesday, political historical past professor John Helin supplied what’s in all probability one of the best overview of actions within the space south of Velyka Novosilka, the place assaults have been reported since Monday.
Whereas these actions could have began with what gave the impression to be probing assaults at a number of places alongside the entrance, they’ve grown into a bigger and extra sustained push, one through which Ukrainian troops aren’t sending out small teams after which setting again, however following up beneficial properties with extra forces, securing positions, and bringing artillery and different weapons ahead beneath cowl of tanks and infantry. In brief, it’s trying like mixed arms warfare being performed by a pressure that features each Western gear and a lot of males.
Russians declare these models are the twenty third, thirty first, and thirty seventh brigades. Solely thirty seventh will be confirmed with average confidence by way of OSINT because of the presence of AMX-10 RC’s and Mastiff MRAP’s on Russian movies.
Earlier reporting on the realm (together with right here) had centered closely in town of Novodonetske, the place Ukrainian forces appeared to have their first successes in pushing Russian troops out of a long-occupied settlement. Nevertheless, it now appears that the main thrust of the operations within the space have been alongside the highway instantly south of Velyka Novosilka. Ukraine has powered by way of Russian positions at a complete string of cities that lead towards the freeway junction at Staromlynivka.
At its deepest penetration, Ukraine has approached the village of Urozhaine, about 10 kilometers south of Velyka Novosilka, after both securing or bypassing a cluster of different villages and cities.The realm simply west of the freeway is cut up by the slim and twisting Mokri Yaly River, however it seems that Ukrainian forces are staging assaults on each side of this river, with the japanese advance presently working forward of the penetration on the west the place extra substantial villages have been positioned.
However whereas it could not seem like the troops on the western financial institution are advancing rapidly, they’ve carried out an much more essential process. They reportedly secured positions on excessive floor round Storozheve, permitting Ukraine to have fireplace management over the freeway and Russian positions to the south.
Helin’s thread doesn’t embrace the actions of the previous 24 hours. In that point, Ukraine appears to have united the realm round Novodonetske with the push towards Staromlynivka. It could not seem like a lot, however that’s about 60 sq. kilometers—an space bigger than the entire metropolis of Bakhmut—which took Russia 9 months to seize. That is notably notable as a result of that is closely defended and closely mined territory, in an space Russia anticipated could be focused.
On the similar time, Ukraine has renewed assaults round Rivnopil and Levadne. If it appears to be like like there are a variety of arrows on the map above, that’s as a result of there appears to be a superb variety of models concerned right here urgent the road throughout about 40 kilometers of entrance. If these actions on Monday have been Ukraine feeling out Russian positions, Ukraine apparently appreciated what they discovered. It’s doubtless that a number of of those settlements at the moment are totally liberated by Ukraine, however to this point nothing has been introduced.
That’s not all. Early stories that there was exercise to the west was what appear to be extra coordinated assaults on Wednesday evening, with Ukrainian forces taking floor round Robotyne, instantly south of Orikhiv, and round Lobkove, to the northeast of Vasylivka.
The size or the models concerned in these assaults aren’t clear. Nevertheless, they did include one thing new: the primary actual footage of Leopard tanks on the entrance traces.
The string of photographs, which is all Russian drone footage, features a group of autos burning at a location south and east of the sooner footage close to Novopokrovka. One of many autos concerned does look like a broken or destroyed Leopard 2A4 tank. This time, the loss appears to be like to be actual and never only a misidentified tractor. Stories from Russian army bloggers are that the Leopard bumped into mines, whereas the Russian MOD insists it was hit by artillery fireplace.The result of the battle through which the Leopards have been concerned is unknown.
Issues are simply that foggy in the intervening time. Most info is coming both from Russians who’re panicking, Russians who’re attempting to curry favor with management, or Russians who’re attempting to curry favor whereas panicking. Not one of the above are nice sources for correct info.
Nevertheless, that misplaced Leopard definitely appears to be half of a giant assortment of {hardware} within the space, one which definitely suggests the place a superb portion of these remaining Western-trained brigades could also be.
This space is true above Melitopol and the essential railway and freeway junction city of Tokmak. It’s the realm the place most stories have urged Ukraine may focus its efforts for months. It’s additionally the realm the place Russia had devoted itself to ring after ring of defensive buildings designed to sluggish any assault.
It’s basically the toughest of arduous factors anyplace on the entrance, but in addition some of the worthwhile targets. Ukraine is hitting it. On Thursday, there’s reportedly one other push underway within the space of Nesterianka.
Alongside the southern entrance, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now lively throughout 150 kilometers of positions. That gained’t be all. It could not even be the one entrance. To this point Ukraine had made beneficial properties in some areas, however the lack of the Leopard tank exhibits that Western {hardware} is much from invulnerable on the battlefield, particularly in areas with ready positions, minefields, surveillance drones, and overlapping zones of artillery fireplace.
With Kharkiv, Ukraine was capable of sprint. In Zaporizhzhia, it could be a grind. And Ukraine hasn’t even hit the primary sequence of defensive traces. However in any case, it’s not simply Ukrainian gear that’s burning.
Kherson
Whereas Ukrainian troops on the west financial institution have been working steadily to rescue individuals and animals from the floodwaters ensuing from Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, the east financial institution is providing up nothing however horror tales. Civilians are discovering themselves trapped on rooftops, with out help, as Russia makes an attempt to faux all is regular.
For a lot of of these in closely flooded low-lying cities east of the Dnipro River, the scenario is dire. However no less than a couple of have been getting a bit of assist from Ukrainian drone pilots.
Even within the liberated areas on the west financial institution, rescue efforts are having to take care of a component that ought to by no means be part of such conditions. Within the midst of the flooding, Russia is shelling places the place rescue operations are underway.
To make issues even worse, Human Rights in Ukraine stories that Russians are destroying dams at smaller reservoirs, and erecting obstacles to not shield properties however, “to make sure that the water overflows and floods roads and fields.” The objective is outwardly to create an enormous space of watery bathroom, defending Russia’s western flank from a possible cross-river counterattack. Russia feels that it could do that, whereas nonetheless sustaining positions from which it could shell Kherson metropolis and different places to the west.
The instant consequence, along with inflicting distress and threatening the lives of individuals trapped by the rising waters, is destruction of a giant space of Ukraine’s industrial base in addition to hundreds of thousands of hectares of extremely productive farmland (the entire area trusted the Kakhovka reservoir for irrigation water). Hundreds of Ukrainians have been instantly endangered, and tens of hundreds extra made homeless by Russia’s actions. That is one thing that gained’t simply be resolved, even when a brand new dam is constructed.
Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces proceed to make beneficial properties each north and south of Bakhmut, however the metropolis itself isn’t being unnoticed of the motion.
Berdyansk
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