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The factor about Melitopol is that Russia would have a really, very exhausting time transporting troops or materiel in southern Ukraine with out going via it.
The rail strains to and from Crimea run alongside that highway that juts southwest out of Melitopol. This isn’t solely the placement Russia makes use of to maneuver gear by rail to areas nearer to Zaporizhzhya, it’s the place nearly the whole lot that comes via Crimea will get off the practice and on the freeway. It’s, by far, crucial transportation hub within the area.
However in fact, all these roads main out of Melitopol additionally lead into Melitopol. Its location on the midpoint of Russian-occupied territory in southern Ukraine and its significance to Russia in shifting gear throughout the area had made this metropolis a number one contender for the primary place Ukraine may hit in any counteroffensive.
Russia has eliminated gear from storage areas in Crimea
This week, satellite tv for pc imagery Maxar and The Washington Put up made out there some hires satellite tv for pc imagery of Crimea. Whereas this was completed primarily in help of the Put up story on Russia’s development of an intensive community of trenches and different defensive buildings, imagery skilled Brady Africk observed one thing else—a whole lot of Russian gear previously saved on this space is now lacking. That features “tanks, armored automobiles, and artillery” previously saved on this space.
This location is about 10km northeast of the town of Dzhankoi. It’s tempting to imagine that Russia moved this materiel after Ukraine demonstrated its means to strike on this space with an assault on the Dzhankoi rail junction in March. Nonetheless, the second spherical of images is definitely from March 16, which is a few week earlier than Ukraine’s huge strike within the space. It’s additionally doable that this gear has merely been moved to Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and different areas the place Russian gear has been expended at a fast clip.
In any case, it’s value hitting the clip above to see the distinction. This can be a great amount of apparatus, and it’s definitely gone someplace. Is it supporting a Russian offensive, getting ready to satisfy a counteroffensive, or already damaged alongside roads in jap Ukraine?
A drone strike on Russia, A meteorite hits Ukraine
Together with this video primarily due to the placement. It seems to be taking place at a location about 5km northeast of Torske and about 10km west of Kreminna. This seems to point that, whereas Ukraine continues to report Russian assaults on the village of Dibrova simply west of Kreminna, Russian forces could have bypassed this village to the north alongside Lymanska Avenue (the primary highway between Lyman and Kreminna).
This might clarify how, over the past two months, there have been each persevering with fights at Dibrova and sporadic reviews of preventing near Torske or Yampolivka. This does not appear to point any new advance on the a part of Russian forces. Nonetheless, there was not less than one terrible occasion reported on Wednesday. That earlier video during which Ukrainian forces used a trench clearing UR-77 “Meteorite” to blast a path via Russian forces in Bakhmut? Russia apparently returned the favor through the use of a Meteorite in opposition to Ukrainian troops within the forest south of Kreminna on Wednesday. Ukrainian army is concerning this as a giant intelligence failure because the UR-77 has a really brief vary and shouldn’t have survived lengthy sufficient to method Ukrainian strains.
In any case, anticipate an up to date map on this space after I can collect some extra data on what’s taking place right here.
Discover as soon as once more that the weapon in use by Ukraine is a modified FPV drone. These are turning out to be the weapon of selection for these kamikaze assaults, and the VR goggles used with these drones make for very efficient and exact focusing on and the drones themselves are extraordinarily cheap. These are the form of drones that reportedly make up a big a part of that Ukrainian “assault swarm” that kos mentioned final week.
If you wish to see how rapidly and intentionally drone expertise is advancing in Ukraine, try the video beneath. This isn’t taking place via random choice. Persons are watching very intently the movies of how drones are getting used and getting suggestions from troopers on the entrance line. Additionally included on this video, a glimpse of a drone truly carrying a kind of improbably giant shells.
A stroll via Kyiv
What I like about this specific one-minute stroll is that it looks as if it might be wherever. Aside from just a few unfamiliar automobiles on the curb, this location looks as if one thing I’d discover in a part of St. Louis, Chicago, Seattle, New York, or simply about any metropolis in Europe. I like that. Kyiv ought to be simply one other regular, vigorous metropolis.
a drive via Bakhmut
The textual content says, “Bakhmut within the night. The fortress is holding.”
Not that the video right here, which is by all accounts new, not reveals the heavy snow that fell on Bakhmut simply 5 days in the past. Some movies and pictures from the world nonetheless present spots of snow in areas of timber or in shaded areas, however for essentially the most half, Bakhmut seems to be again to simply mud—although there are predictions of doable snow once more this week. After a really heat winter, spring is making a reluctant begin in jap Ukraine.
In Bakhmut, Russia reportedly introduced a TOS-1 into the jap space of the town on Wednesday and started systematically lowering blocks alongside the river with thermobaric weapons. This doesn’t look like an space the place Ukrainian troops have been current. It’s simply making rubble for rubble’s sake.
There’s a bizarre story circulated on Telegram this morning {that a} Russian T-80 tank was hit by artillery, which revealed that what have been purported to be reactive armor panels have been truly seat cushions full of cardboard egg crates. I’ve zero proof for this, and it appears like a joke primarily based on the “Russia stole the whole lot out of their tanks” concept. However I’m passing it alongside, as a result of it looks as if such a wierd joke there simply is likely to be one thing to it.
The New York Counteroffensive?
When choosing spots the place Ukraine may launch a counteroffensive, New York in all probability wasn’t on the high of the checklist. However that is Nui-York, the city in jap Ukraine simply west of occupied Horlivka. There are reviews on Thursday that Ukraine has made an advance down the freeway to the south of this location.
It’s not doable but to inform the scope of this operation. It may simply be little greater than the form of tentative advance that each Ukraine and Russia have been making alongside the southern a part of the entrance. Hopefully, there might be extra data immediately, however there has already been hypothesis that is supposed to alleviate strain on Avdiivka to the south.
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