[ad_1]
For all of the sturm und drang of right now’s preventing, modifications on the bottom have been scant. Ukraine formally picked up a small city right here, Russia did the identical over there. Whereas a lot of the entrance line was on fireplace (Ukraine claimed 14 separate assaults), the scenario on the bottom remained basically unchanged. @War_Mapper’s updates on Twitter are all the time nice, if you wish to see today’s changes.
I wrote earlier that pro-Russian Telegram sources claimed Ukraine was assaulting Izyum from throughout the Donets River (backside arrow in picture under), however a number of sources declare the assault is definitely coming down from Chuhuiv (high arrow).
If Chuhuiv is the the supply of the counter-offensive, it will doubtless journey that principal freeway southeast towards Izyium, relatively than east towards Kupiansk. Russia has moved a substantial amount of fight energy to Shevchenkove, between Chuhuiv and Kupiansk, to guard its essential provide depot from any Ukrainian advance. Getting by means of these two cities could be costly to Ukraine in army assets and lives. And there’s no want, as we’ve can now so clearly see with Ukraine’s push towards Izyum itself.
Briefly, if Ukraine collapses that Izyum pocket, there’s now not a necessity for Russia to keep up operations in both Kupiansk or Vovchansk—the 2 logistical hubs feeding the warfare machine within the Izyum salient. After per week of debating “Kupiansk vs Vovchansk,” it seems that the perfect reply is “C: Take away the motive for each.”
To make sure, I doublechecked NASA Corporations satellite tv for pc imagery, and there’s definitely no fires close to Shevechenkove. If Ukraine was headed in that route, it will fireplace in town to clear Russian positions, whereas Russia would fireplace again to gradual or cease the advance. As a substitute, as I demonstrated earlier with FIRMS satellite tv for pc imagery, all of the motion is growing immediately west of Izyum:
Possibly there’s a two-prong assault on Izyum growing, from each the west and northwest. Or possibly individuals don’t know what’s occurring. Or possibly there’s even some disinformation designed to repair Russian positions on a northwest strategy that may by no means materialize. That’s why FIRMS imagery could be so useful. There are such a lot of sources of knowledge claiming stuff, and few of them are actually incentivized to all the time inform the reality.
On one other matter, it’s good seeing our protection tax {dollars} doing one thing productive.
The declare by Ukrainian servicemen’s is that American-donated M777 howitzers destroyed the 80+ automobiles at Russia’s unimaginably disastrous Bilohorivka river crossing try. I’m trying ahead to a translation (this guy will do it quickly), but it surely positively seems like an “America, FUCK YEAH” second we liberals can rally behind.
This entire debacle has been a enjoyable occasion to trace on pro-Russia social media. The Institute for the Examine of Struggle claims, in tonight’s replace, that they’ve seen pro-Russia telegram shaken by the carnage:
Outstanding pro-Russian Telegram channels (with roughly 300 thousand followers) largely criticized Russian Common Workers for failing to be taught from earlier fight errors and expressed concern that censorship and self-censorship was depriving them of situational consciousness. Different pro-Russian Telegram channels famous the gradual tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, blaming it partially on ineffective aerial reconnaissance and the detrimental results of unhealthy morale throughout the Russian army. Some Telegram channels reported receiving criticism for “misrepresenting” the efficiency of the Russian army.
They cite all these observations, in order that they’re true. However I have to frequent a unique nook of Telegram and pro-Russia Twitter, as a result of what I’ve seen is completely completely different—the invention of a fantastical alternate actuality the place a lot of the destroyed automobiles are Ukrainian.
The idea is as such: a lot of the destroyed automobiles are BMP-1 infantry preventing automobiles, and supposedly Russia now not fields these historic automobiles. On-the-ground photographs reveals Russian uniforms in those BMP-1s, however hey, these may very well be faked, proper? That’s what the propagandists say. Open Supply Intelligence (OSINT) analyst Henry Schlottman, the authority on the composition of Russian military models, definitely claims that they’re in service.
Oryx has tracked 43 BMP-1s misplaced by Russia, like this, this, this, and this, all with distinguished Russian invasion markings. Oh, and right here’s one that also in Russia’s palms:
Moreover, Russia has been compelled to dig into its operational reserves to backfill fight losses whereas reconstituted shredded models. There aren’t a whole lot of trendy infantry automobiles in these reserves. That is the crap they’re pulling out.
In fact, there’s much more than simply BMP-1s on the Bilohorivka catastrophe website! There are 14 T-72s, that are commonplace Russian problem (although Ukraine has captured a bunch), in addition to BMP-2s, and engineering and help tools that solely Russia fields. So how do they clarify that?
Nicely, they’ll concede that there was an enormous battle on the spot. They’ll even admit (typically) that Russia now not holds the bridgehead. However, their losses have been only a fraction of the general complete destroyed automobiles. You see, there was an enormous battle, and, Russia destroyed all these Ukrainians in BMP-1s earlier than tactically retreating again throughout the bridge, which then Ukraine destroyed after the actual fact … er … thrice.
Then Russia launched video saying “nah uh, we destroyed Ukrainian bridge!”
Besides … all I see is Russian capturing at a river, then dropping artillery on a river, with no automobiles wherever round. Who is aware of, possibly they did compromise a working bridgehead. However it will nonetheless imply the tally is as follows:
Destroyed Russian pontoon bridge: 82+ automobiles
Destroyed Ukrainian pontoon bridge: 0 automobiles
However actually, that type of propaganda isn’t designed to persuade individuals, it’s designed to provide their partisans crap to spew. Nothing else. There’s a time period for that type of fantasy-making on this warfare, and it’ll jump over to our personal political discourse earlier than lengthy: copium. Individuals will invent what they want to deal with the information they don’t need to see.
[ad_2]
Source link